July 21, 2004
July 15, 2004
People have been saying this for a long time. Before the PC revolution, people thought that this profession will be reduced to maintenance work, which would be done offshored. In the 80s, Japan created software development factories and failed miserably because software development is not like other engineering schools or like manufacturing.
Since Nicholas Carr’s critique “IT doesn’t matter” in 2003, people have been joining the club. The phase I for this is already completed, where most of the jobs have moved to offshored. Though, at this time most of the offshore companies are simply sweatshops where workers work 14 hours a day and 6-7 days a week, in time they will be converted into truly software factories just as Japan imagined it 30 years ago. Phase II is will be the concentration of offshore companies to a few big houses. Phase III depends on another revolution, which is real software factories process such as software product lines, DSL and MDA based development, which will further reduce IT profession. Yeah, MDA and alike development are a little more than an idea, where tools may do a fraction of the work, but this ratio will shift towards automation within a decade. So ultimately, this profession already doomed in US and other western countries and it will be doomed globally in another few decades.